Phase 1

Auditing Your Intuition (System 1)

Our brains love simple stories and quick judgments. This first step uncovers the unconscious shortcuts that shape your initial assessment.

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Narrative Heuristic

We construct plausible stories to make sense of the world. Ask yourself: What story am I telling myself right now that makes this decision feel right?

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Availability Heuristic

We overestimate the likelihood of events that come easily to mind. Is your decision based on vivid anecdotes or statistical facts?

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Anchoring Effect

The first piece of information we receive influences all subsequent judgments. What "anchor" (e.g., a price, a salary) might be unconsciously distorting your thinking?

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Cognitive Load

Stress, time pressure, and information overload force us to use mental shortcuts. How high is your current mental load? Are you able to think analytically?

Phase 2

Breaking the Frame

We often only see what's directly in front of us (WYSIATI - What You See Is All There Is). This phase forces you to look beyond the obvious.

The Framing Effect

The same information, presented differently, leads to different decisions. A 90% success chance feels better than a 10% failure chance.

The Relativity Trap

We compare options relative to each other. A "decoy" option can make another option seem more attractive than it actually is.

Phase 3

Active Disconfirmation

Actively combat Confirmation Bias by deliberately seeking counter-evidence and weaknesses.

The Premortem Technique (Gary Klein)

Imagine your decision led to a disaster. How could that have happened? This process uncovers risks you might otherwise overlook.

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Today

Decision

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In 1 Year

Disaster

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Analysis

Why?

😈

Play Devil's Advocate

Formulate the strongest, most passionate argument *against* your own decision. What are the most compelling counter-arguments?

🗣️

Seek Dissent

Find the most intelligent person who disagrees with you. Truly listen to their arguments, rather than just waiting for your turn to speak.

Phase 4

Uncovering Hidden Drivers

Often, it's not rational but emotional and social forces that guide our decisions.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy

Are you justifying continuing a path simply because you've already invested time and money?

Identity Signaling

What image of yourself are you projecting with this decision? How much of it is pure self-presentation?

Phase 5

Synthesis & Recalibration

Consolidate your insights and formulate a more robust, well-considered decision.

Confidence Check

How confident were you before this process – and how confident are you now? The difference shows the value of reflection.

🎯

The Refined Decision

Reformulate your decision. It might remain the same, but now you know the risks and can plan countermeasures. For example: "I will do X and mitigate risk Y (identified in the premortem) by implementing Z."

Phase 6

Generating Alternative Scenarios

Leverage the insights from all previous phases to actively brainstorm and evaluate truly diverse alternative courses of action. Don't just refine; innovate.

Brainstorming Beyond the Obvious

Based on the biases you've identified, the frames you've broken, the counter-arguments you've considered, and the hidden drivers you've uncovered, what entirely new options or approaches emerge?

**The "Opposite" Scenario:** What if you did the exact opposite of your initial preliminary decision? What would that look like, and what are its potential benefits/drawbacks?
**The "Minimalist" Scenario:** What is the absolute least you could do to address the core problem or seize the core opportunity?
**The "Maximalist" Scenario:** What is the most ambitious or resource-intensive approach you could take?
**The "External Expert" Scenario:** If an unbiased, highly knowledgeable external expert were to propose a solution, what might it be?
**The "Long-Term Play" Scenario:** What decision would you make if you were optimizing purely for a 5-10 year outlook, ignoring short-term pressures?

Evaluate these new scenarios against the refined decision from Phase 5. This ensures you're not just correcting for bias, but actively exploring a broader solution space.